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IEA報告說,新的天然氣成為重要的交通燃料/Natural Gas Emerges as Significant Transportation Fuel, says new IEA Report
瀏覽次數 775 , 日期 2013-06-26 , 燃氣設備 加入收藏
天然氣仍將以增加其對全球能源結構中所占的份額,雖然放緩,從去年的2.7%的預測,現在和2018年間每年2.4%,國際能源署(IEA)表示,在其新發布的中期天然氣市場報告(MTGMR) 。放緩是由于需求持續疲軟,在歐洲以及中東和非洲的上游產量增長的困難。然而,預測天然氣作為運輸燃料,繼續強調其實力,這個時代作為一種新興的燃料。
該報告認為氣體逐漸成為一個重要的運輸燃料。執行摘要指出:“天然氣利用公路運輸占1.4%,在2012年,全球天然氣需求,但消費的增長到50億立方米左右,在同一時期(9.4%的額外的天然氣需求,到2018年這一份額將上升至2.5%) “。
得益于豐富的頁巖氣在美國和在中國中更嚴格的環保政策,天然氣有望做更多的減緩石油需求增長比電動車和生物燃料聯合。內容提要:“中國矮化其消費量的三倍至39億立方米的其他地區,由于發展的需要相結合,開發更清潔的運輸車輛,有吸引力的天然氣價格與石油和希望減少對石油的依賴,通過替代車輛技術“。
“盡管我們已修訂我們的增長預測下調,”黃金時代“的氣體仍然如火如荼,”國際能源署(IEA)執行干事瑪麗亞·范德胡芬說,她提出的報告在圣彼得堡。“天然氣是發電的主要燃料,但在未來五年也將看到它作為重要的運輸燃料供應充足,以及對石油的依賴和空氣污染的擔憂,帶動新興。一旦基礎設施障礙,解決天然氣重型運輸中具有重大潛力的清潔能源使用,,電氣化是不可能的。“
報告談到氣十足的價值鏈,這意味著天然氣供應充足,發展和建設液化廠養活LNG重型車輛,以及液化天然氣(LNG)或/和壓縮天然氣加氣站同步發展的需要。內容提要:“經濟學應該是有吸引力的天然氣價值鏈的所有部件,尤其是業主的汽車或卡車的車隊。使用LNG作為一個貨運燃料似乎回答了很多的關注,特別是雞和雞蛋的問題,車隊所有者可以組隊與LNG零售商和積極的投資回報,可在幾年內達到。汽車行業應該能夠提供足夠數量的車輛引進天然氣汽車在他們的產品范圍,并努力降低價格溢價替代汽油或柴油車輛,提供經濟和政策激勵措施產生這類車輛的需求。必要條件包括:統一的標準和規則,參與貨運的人員提供適當的培訓;處理天然氣汽車加氣站;成天然氣汽車和改裝車輛。“
該報告也承認非公路部門,如從海洋和鐵路應用的需求不斷增長的需求和潛力。
Natural gas will continue to increase its share of the global energy mix, albeit slowing from last year’s prediction of 2.7% down to 2.4% per year between now and 2018, the IEA said in its newly released Medium-Term Gas Market Report (MTGMR). Slowing is due to persistent demand weakness in Europe as well as difficulties in upstream production growth in the Middle East and Africa. However, prediction for natural gas as a transportation fuel continues to emphasize its strength as an emerging fuel for this era.
The report sees gas emerging as a significant transportation fuel. The Executive Summary states: “Gas use in road transport represented 1.4% of global gas demand in 2012, but this share should rise to 2.5% by 2018 as consumption grows to around 50 bcm in the same period (9.4% of additional gas demand).”
Thanks to abundant shale gas in the United States and amid more stringent environmental policies in China, gas is expected to do more to slow oil demand growth than electric vehicles and biofuels combined. From the Executive Summary: “China is dwarfing developments in other regions as its consumption triples to 39 bcm, due to the combination of the need to develop cleaner transport vehicles, attractive gas prices versus oil and the wish to reduce oil dependency through alternative vehicles technologies.”
“Even though we have revised our growth estimates downwards, the ‘Golden Age’ of gas remains in full swing,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven as she presented the report in Saint Petersburg. “Gas is already a major fuel in power generation, but the next five years will also see it emerging as a significant transportation fuel, driven by abundant supplies as well as concerns about oil dependency and air pollution. Once the infrastructure barriers are tackled, natural gas has significant potential for clean-energy use in heavy-duty transport where electrification is not possible.”
The report speaks to the need for simultaneous development of the full gas value chain, which implies developing sufficient gas supply and building liquefaction plants to feed LNG heavy-duty vehicles, as well as LNG or/and compressed natural gas refilling stations. Executive Summary: “The economics should be attractive for all parts of the gas value chain, in particular owners of fleets of cars or trucks. Use of LNG as a trucking fuel seems to answer many concerns, in particular the chicken-and-egg issue, as fleet owners can team up with LNG retailers and a positive return on investments can be reached within a few years. The car industry should be able to deliver a sufficient number of vehicles by introducing NGVs in their product range, and by working on decreasing the price premium over alternative gasoline or diesel vehicles, provided that economics and policy incentives generate demand for such vehicles. Necessary conditions include: the harmonisation of standards and rules; proper training of personnel involved in trucking; handling NGVs and filling stations; and retrofitting vehicles into NGVs.”
The report also acknowledges the growing demand and potential for demand from non-road sectors such as from marine and rail applications.